Merge pull request #1331 from Renato-Rodrigues/emiMktTarget_update

Emi mkt target update
remindmodel · Jul 6, 2023 · eafa7cd · eafa7cd
2 parents ac50de0 + d006d54
commit eafa7cd
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diff --git a/core/sets.gms b/core/sets.gms
@@ -12,6 +12,8 @@
 ***-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 ***-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 SETS
+numberOrder     "set to assure that numeric values follow ascending order in the GAMS entry order (e.g. iterations and years used in loop statements)" / 1*2200 /  
+
 * Save select compiler flags as sets, to make them accessible from the final gdx
 c_expname       "c_expname as set for use in GDX"       /%c_expname%/
 c_description   "%c_description%"   /"for model description, see explanatory text"/

diff --git a/main.gms b/main.gms
@@ -869,6 +869,17 @@ parameter
 ;
   cm_postTargetIncrease    = 0;      !! def = 0
 *'
+parameter
+  cm_emiMktTarget_tolerance "tolerance for regipol emission target deviations convergence."
+;
+  cm_emiMktTarget_tolerance    = 0.01;       !! def = 0.01, i.e. regipol emission targets must be met within 1% of target deviation
+*'  For budget targets the tolerance is measured relative to the target value. For year targets the tolerance is relative to 2005 emissions.
+*'
+parameter
+  cm_implicitQttyTarget_tolerance "tolerance for regipol implicit quantity target deviations convergence."
+;
+  cm_implicitQttyTarget_tolerance    = 0.01;       !! def = 0.01, i.e. regipol implicit quantity targets must be met within 1% of target deviation
+*'
 parameter
   cm_emiMktTargetDelay  "number of years for delayed price change in the emission tax convergence algorithm. Not applied to first target set."
 ;

diff --git a/modules/47_regipol/none/not_used.txt b/modules/47_regipol/none/not_used.txt
@@ -74,3 +74,4 @@ vm_emiFgas,input,questionnaire
 vm_emiMacSector,input,questionnaire
 vm_emiTeDetailMkt,input,added by codeCheck
 vm_emiTeMkt,input,added by codeCheck
+cm_emiMktTarget_tolerance,switch,not needed
diff --git a/modules/47_regipol/regiCarbonPrice/datainput.gms b/modules/47_regipol/regiCarbonPrice/datainput.gms
@@ -18,10 +18,16 @@ p47_implicitQttyTargetTaxRescale_iter("1", "2030",ext_regi,qttyTarget,qttyTarget
 $endIf.cm_implicitQttyTarget
 
 *** RR this should be replaced as soon as non-energy is treated endogenously in the model
-*** EUR in 2030 ~ 90Mtoe (90 * 10^6 toe -> 90 * 10^6 toe * 41.868 GJ/toe -> 3768.12 * 10^6 GJ * 10^-9 EJ/GJ -> 3.76812 EJ * 1 TWa/31.536 EJ -> 0.1194863 TWa) EU27 = 92% EU28"
-p47_nonEnergyUse("2030",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "EUR_regi")) = 0.1194863;
-p47_nonEnergyUse("2030",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "EU27_regi")) = 0.11;
-
+*** non-energy use values are calculated by taking the time path as contained in pm_fe_nechem.cs4r (where eg the 2030 value for EU27 is 91.6% of the 2020 value) and rescaling that with historic non-energy values from Eurostat
+*** historical values can be found at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/bookmark/f7c8aa0e-3cf6-45d6-b85c-f2e76e90b4aa?lang=en
+p47_nonEnergyUse("2030",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "EU27_regi")) = 0.121606*0.916; 
+p47_nonEnergyUse("2030",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "EUR_regi")) = 0.13*0.924;
+p47_nonEnergyUse("2050",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "EU27_regi")) = 0.121606*0.815; 
+p47_nonEnergyUse("2050",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "EUR_regi")) = 0.13*0.841;
+
+p47_nonEnergyUse("2030",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "DEU")) = 0.03*0.928; 
+p47_nonEnergyUse("2045",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "DEU")) = 0.03*0.848; 
+p47_nonEnergyUse("2050",ext_regi)$(sameas(ext_regi, "DEU")) = 0.03*0.822; 
 ***--------------------------------------------------
 *** Emission markets (EU Emission trading system and Effort Sharing)
 ***--------------------------------------------------

diff --git a/modules/47_regipol/regiCarbonPrice/declarations.gms b/modules/47_regipol/regiCarbonPrice/declarations.gms
@@ -40,12 +40,13 @@ Parameter
 *** Parameters necessary to calculate current emission target deviations
   pm_emiMktCurrent(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)    "previous iteration region emissions (from year ttot to ttot2 for budget) [GtCO2 or GtCO2eq]"
   p47_emiMktCurrent_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) "parameter to save pm_emiMktCurrent across iterations  [GtCO2 or GtCO2eq]"
-  pm_emiMktRefYear(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)    "emissions in reference year 2015, used for calculating target deviation of year targets [GtCO2 or GtCO2eq]"
+  pm_emiMktRefYear(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)    "emissions in reference year 2005, used for calculating target deviation of year targets [GtCO2 or GtCO2eq]"
   pm_emiMktTarget_dev_iter(iteration, ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) "parameter to save pm_emiMktTarget_dev across iterations [%]"
 
 *** Parameters necessary to calculate the emission tax rescaling factor
   p47_factorRescaleSlope(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)     "auxiliary parameter to save the slope corresponding to the observed mitigation derivative regarding to co2tax level changes from the two previous iterations [#]"
   p47_factorRescaleSlope_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) "parameter to save mitigation curve slope across iterations [#]"
+  p47_slopeReferenceIteration_iter(iteration,ttot,ext_regi)    "auxiliary parameter to store reference iteration used for calculating slope of current mititgation cost [#]"
   pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) "multiplicative tax rescale factor that rescales emiMkt carbon price from iteration to iteration to reach regipol targets [%]"
   p47_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) "parameter to save rescale factor across iterations for debugging purposes [%]"
 

diff --git a/modules/47_regipol/regiCarbonPrice/postsolve.gms b/modules/47_regipol/regiCarbonPrice/postsolve.gms
@@ -194,8 +194,13 @@ pm_emiMktTarget_dev_iter(iteration, ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = pm_emiMktTa
 loop((ext_regi,ttot2)$regiANDperiodEmiMktTarget_47(ttot2,ext_regi),
   p47_targetConverged(ttot2,ext_regi) = 1;
   loop((ttot,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47)$((pm_emiMktTarget(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47))),
-    if((abs(pm_emiMktTarget_dev(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)) > 0.01), !! if emiMKt target did not converged
-      p47_targetConverged(ttot2,ext_regi) = 0;
+    loop(regi$regi_groupExt(ext_regi,regi),
+      loop(emiMkt$emiMktGroup(emiMktExt,emiMkt), 
+***     if emiMKt target did not converged and we are not forcing negative prices (if the price is at minimal level (1$/tCO2) and current emissions are lower than the target) 
+        if(((abs(pm_emiMktTarget_dev(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)) gt cm_emiMktTarget_tolerance) and (not ((pm_taxemiMkt(ttot2,regi,emiMkt) eq 1*sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC) and (pm_emiMktTarget_dev(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) lt 0)))), !! if emiMKt target did not converged and 
+          p47_targetConverged(ttot2,ext_regi) = 0;
+        );
+      );
     );
   );
 );
@@ -212,72 +217,84 @@ loop(ext_regi$regiEmiMktTarget(ext_regi),
 );
 p47_allTargetsConverged_iter(iteration,ext_regi) = p47_allTargetsConverged(ext_regi);
 
+*** define current target to be solved
+p47_currentConvergence_iter(iteration,ttot,ext_regi) = 0;
+loop(ext_regi$regiEmiMktTarget(ext_regi),
+*** solving targets sequentially, i.e. only apply target convergence algorithm if previous yearly targets were already achieved
+  if(not(p47_allTargetsConverged(ext_regi) eq 1), !!no rescale need if all targets already converged
+*** define current target to be solved
+    loop((ttot)$regiANDperiodEmiMktTarget_47(ttot,ext_regi),
+      p47_currentConvergencePeriod(ext_regi) = ttot.val;
+      break$(p47_targetConverged(ttot,ext_regi) eq 0); !!only run target convergence up to the first year that has not converged
+    );
+    loop((ttot)$(regiANDperiodEmiMktTarget_47(ttot,ext_regi) and (ttot.val gt p47_currentConvergencePeriod(ext_regi))),
+      p47_nextConvergencePeriod(ext_regi) = ttot.val;
+      break;
+    );
+    loop((ttot,ttot2,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47)$(pm_emiMktTarget(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47) AND (ttot2.val eq p47_currentConvergencePeriod(ext_regi))),
+      p47_currentConvergence_iter(iteration,ttot2,ext_regi) = 1;
+    );
+  );
+);
+
+*** reference iteration from which to calculate the mitigation cost slope.
+loop((ext_regi,ttot)$regiANDperiodEmiMktTarget_47(ttot,ext_regi),
+  if(ord(iteration) eq 1,
+    p47_slopeReferenceIteration_iter(iteration,ttot,ext_regi) = 1;
+  elseif(NOT(p47_currentConvergence_iter(iteration,ttot,ext_regi) eq p47_currentConvergence_iter(iteration-1,ttot,ext_regi))), !! reset the iteration reference for slope calculation if the target that is being analyzed changes
+    p47_slopeReferenceIteration_iter(iteration,ttot,ext_regi) = ord(iteration);
+  else
+    p47_slopeReferenceIteration_iter(iteration,ttot,ext_regi) = p47_slopeReferenceIteration_iter(iteration-1,ttot,ext_regi);
+  );
+);
+
+
 *** Calculating the emissions tax rescale factor based on previous iterations emission reduction
 loop((ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47)$pm_emiMktTarget(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47),
   loop(emiMkt$emiMktGroup(emiMktExt,emiMkt), 
     loop(regi$regi_groupExt(ext_regi,regi),
-***   initiliazing first iteration rescale factor based on remaining deviation
-      if(iteration.val eq 1,
-        pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = (1+pm_emiMktTarget_dev(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)) ** 2;
-***   else if for the extreme case of a perfect match with no change between the two previous iteration emisssion taxes, in order to avoid a division by zero error, assume the rescale factor based on remaining deviation
-      elseif(((iteration.val eq 2) and (pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration,ttot2,regi,emiMkt) eq pm_taxemiMkt_iteration("1",ttot2,regi,emiMkt))) or
-             ((iteration.val gt 2) and (pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration,ttot2,regi,emiMkt) eq pm_taxemiMkt_iteration("2",ttot2,regi,emiMkt)))),
-        pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = (1+pm_emiMktTarget_dev(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)) ** 2;
-***   else using previous iteration information to define rescale factor  
-***   calculate rescale factor based on slope of previous iterations mitigation levels when compared to relative price difference          
-      else
-        if(iteration.val eq 2,
-          p47_factorRescaleSlope(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) =
-            (p47_emiMktCurrent_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) - p47_emiMktCurrent_iter("1",ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt))
-            /
-            (pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration,ttot2,regi,emiMkt) - pm_taxemiMkt_iteration("1",ttot2,regi,emiMkt))
-          ;
-***     for iterations greater than 2, always calculate the slope relative to the second iteration
+      loop(iteration2$((iteration2.val le iteration.val) and (iteration2.val eq p47_slopeReferenceIteration_iter(iteration,ttot2,ext_regi))), !!reference iteration for slope calculation
+***     if it is the first iteration or the reference iteration changed, initialize the rescale factor based on remaining deviation
+        if(iteration.val eq p47_slopeReferenceIteration_iter(iteration,ttot,ext_regi),
+          pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = (1+pm_emiMktTarget_dev(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)) ** 2;
+***     else if for the extreme case of a perfect match with no change between the two iterations emisssion taxes used in the slope calculation, in order to avoid a division by zero error assume the rescale factor based on remaining deviation
+        elseif((pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration,ttot2,regi,emiMkt) eq pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration2,ttot2,regi,emiMkt))),
+          pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = (1+pm_emiMktTarget_dev(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)) ** 2;
+***     else, use previous iteration information to define rescale factor  
         else
+***       calculate the slope of previous iterations mitigation levels when compared to relative price difference          
           p47_factorRescaleSlope(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) =
-            (p47_emiMktCurrent_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) - p47_emiMktCurrent_iter("2",ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt))
+            (p47_emiMktCurrent_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) - p47_emiMktCurrent_iter(iteration2,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt))
             /
-            (pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration,ttot2,regi,emiMkt) - pm_taxemiMkt_iteration("2",ttot2,regi,emiMkt))
+            (pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration,ttot2,regi,emiMkt) - pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration2,ttot2,regi,emiMkt))
           ;
+***       calculate the tax rescale factor using the above calculated slope
+          pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = 
+            (
+              (pm_emiMktTarget(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47) - p47_emiMktCurrent_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt))
+              / 
+              (p47_factorRescaleSlope(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) * pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration,ttot2,regi,emiMkt))
+            ) + 1;
         );
-***     emission tax rescale factor
-        pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = 
-          (
-            (pm_emiMktTarget(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47) - p47_emiMktCurrent_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt))
-            / 
-            (p47_factorRescaleSlope(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) * pm_taxemiMkt_iteration(iteration,ttot2,regi,emiMkt))
-          ) + 1;
       );
     );    
   );
 );
 p47_factorRescaleSlope_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = p47_factorRescaleSlope(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt);
 p47_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax_iter(iteration,ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt) = pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt); !!save rescale factor across iterations for debugging of target convergence issues
 
-p47_currentConvergence_iter(iteration,ttot,ext_regi) = 0;
-
 loop(ext_regi$regiEmiMktTarget(ext_regi),
 *** solving targets sequentially, i.e. only apply target convergence algorithm if previous yearly targets were already achieved
   if(not(p47_allTargetsConverged(ext_regi) eq 1), !!no rescale need if all targets already converged
-*** define current target to be solved
-    loop((ttot)$regiANDperiodEmiMktTarget_47(ttot,ext_regi),
-      p47_currentConvergencePeriod(ext_regi) = ttot.val;
-      break$(p47_targetConverged(ttot,ext_regi) eq 0); !!only run target convergence up to the first year that has not converged
-    );
-    loop((ttot)$(regiANDperiodEmiMktTarget_47(ttot,ext_regi) and (ttot.val gt p47_currentConvergencePeriod(ext_regi))),
-      p47_nextConvergencePeriod(ext_regi) = ttot.val;
-      break;
-    );
 *** updating the emiMkt co2 tax for the first non converged yearly target  
     loop((ttot,ttot2,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47)$(pm_emiMktTarget(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt,target_type_47,emi_type_47) AND (ttot2.val eq p47_currentConvergencePeriod(ext_regi))),
-      p47_currentConvergence_iter(iteration,ttot2,ext_regi) = 1;
       loop(emiMkt$emiMktGroup(emiMktExt,emiMkt),
         loop(regi$regiEmiMktTarget2regi_47(ext_regi,regi),
 ***       terminal year price
           if((iteration.val eq 1) and (pm_taxemiMkt(ttot2,regi,emiMkt) eq 0), !!intialize price for first iteration if it is missing 
             pm_taxemiMkt(ttot2,regi,emiMkt) = 1* sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC;    
-          else !!update price using rescaling factor
-            pm_taxemiMkt(ttot2,regi,emiMkt) = pm_taxemiMkt(ttot2,regi,emiMkt) * pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt);
+          else !!update price using rescaling factor (Minimal aceptable price = 1 dollar/tCO2)
+            pm_taxemiMkt(ttot2,regi,emiMkt) = max(1* sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC, pm_taxemiMkt(ttot2,regi,emiMkt) * pm_factorRescaleemiMktCO2Tax(ttot,ttot2,ext_regi,emiMktExt)); 
           );
 ***       linear price between first free year and current target terminal year
           loop(ttot3,