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<title> BBC news reports "Germany's daily cases increasing"
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<h1>
<a href="./2020-04-30-news-report-germanys-daily-cases-increasing.html" rel="bookmark" title="Permalink to BBC news reports "Germany's daily cases increasing"">BBC news reports "Germany's daily cases increasing"</a>
</h1>
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<div>
<h2>The news article</h2>
<p>Today, a report from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52481788/page/2">BBC live news
coverage</a> of COVID19 was
featuring the headline: "<em>Germany's daily cases keep rising</em>" and then explained that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Germany has recorded 1,478 new cases for the past 24 hours, marking the fourth
day that new infections have gone up.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And ends with:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Germany last week began easing some of its lockdown measures. It's not clear
whether officials attribute the rise in cases to that easing - but polls show
the majority of Germans are against a rushed lifting of the lock down.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This seems to imply an unexpected increase in daily new cases. </p>
<h2>Putting these numbers in context</h2>
<p>The daily new cases computed from the data from the Johns Hopkins university for the last 4 days are:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre><span></span><code><span class="p">|</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="s s-Atom">total</span> <span class="s s-Atom">cases</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="s s-Atom">daily</span> <span class="s s-Atom">new</span> <span class="s s-Atom">cases</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span><span class="o">:-</span><span class="s s-Atom">----------</span><span class="p">|</span><span class="s s-Atom">--------------:</span><span class="p">|</span><span class="s s-Atom">------------------:</span><span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">26</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">157770</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1257</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">27</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">158758</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">988</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">28</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">159912</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1154</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">29</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">161539</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1627</span> <span class="p">|</span>
</code></pre></div>
<p>The <a href="https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv">data for cases for 30 April is not yet made available from Johns
Hopkins</a>
- the numbers are always updated at the beginning of the next day to be able to
include the data from the previous day.</p>
<p>For at least the last three days, the trend reported is correct: the daily new cases increase from 988 to 1154 to 1627.</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre><span></span><code><span class="p">|</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="s s-Atom">daily</span> <span class="s s-Atom">new</span> <span class="s s-Atom">cases</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span><span class="o">:-</span><span class="s s-Atom">----------</span><span class="p">|</span><span class="s s-Atom">------------------:</span><span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">27</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">988</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">28</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1154</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">29</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1627</span> <span class="p">|</span>
</code></pre></div>
<p>We visualise this by plotting a bar for each day and the number of new infections:</p>
<p><img alt="image" src="./2020-04-30-bbc-germany-increasing1.svg"></p>
<p>We put these numbers into the context of the development of the daily new cases
over an extended period of time, and show the corresponding visualisation:</p>
<p><img alt="image" src="./2020-04-30-bbc-germany-increasing2.svg"></p>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>We can see that the increase of daily new cases over 3 days is somewhat
meaningless: the reported new cases have been oscillating for all data points,
so that increasing numbers for a few days are not necessarily alarming (or
re-assuring). One could speculate that during the weekend and just after fewer
cases are reported, and thus there could be a modulation in the reported data
with a frequency of weeks.</p>
<p>The important data is that averaged over a longer period of time. The blue line
shows data averaged over a week and provides more useful guidance than the daily
numbers which are subjected to noise and - probably - to systematic periodic
oscillations due to the working week.</p>
<p>The main lesson is that individual numbers need to be to put the data in context
to be interpreted.</p>
<h2>Update October 2020</h2>
<ul>
<li>
<p>We added the data point for 30 April in the first plot above, and extended the
data series for the second plot through May 2020.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>See also <a href="2020-05-10-notebook-Weekly-fluctuations-in-data-from-Germany.html">study on weekly fluctuations of reported
numbers</a>.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2>Further reading</h2>
<ol>
<li>
<p>The <a href="https://github.com/oscovida/binder/blob/master/ipynb/2020-04-30-bbc-germany-increasing.ipynb">Jupyter Notebook to create the plots and table above is
available</a> or <a href="2020-04-30-bbc-germany-increasing-notebook.html">here</a>
and can be <a href="https://mybinder.org/v2/gh/oscovida/binder/master?filepath=ipynb/2020-04-30-bbc-germany-increasing.ipynb">re-executed in your
browser</a> </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Updated plots and tables of the type shown above <a href="https://oscovida.github.io">are available for many countries and regions</a>
and for Germany at <a href="https://oscovida.github.io/html/Germany.html">https://oscovida.github.io/html/Germany.html</a>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Original article
(<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52481788/page/2">https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52481788/page/2</a>,
7:19am)</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>More data from Germany (see also <a href="https://oscovida.github.io/html/Germany.html">at bottom of this page</a>):</p>
</li>
</ol>
<div class="highlight"><pre><span></span><code><span class="p">|</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="s s-Atom">total</span> <span class="s s-Atom">cases</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="s s-Atom">daily</span> <span class="s s-Atom">new</span> <span class="s s-Atom">cases</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="s s-Atom">total</span> <span class="s s-Atom">deaths</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="s s-Atom">daily</span> <span class="s s-Atom">new</span> <span class="s s-Atom">deaths</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span><span class="o">:-</span><span class="s s-Atom">----------</span><span class="p">|</span><span class="s s-Atom">--------------:</span><span class="p">|</span><span class="s s-Atom">------------------:</span><span class="p">|</span><span class="s s-Atom">---------------:</span><span class="p">|</span><span class="s s-Atom">-------------------:</span><span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">29</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">161539</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1627</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">6467</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">153</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">28</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">159912</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1154</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">6314</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">188</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">27</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">158758</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">988</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">6126</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">150</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">26</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">157770</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1257</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">5976</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">99</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">25</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">156513</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1514</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">5877</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">117</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">24</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">154999</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1870</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">5760</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">185</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">23</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">153129</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2481</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">5575</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">296</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">22</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">150648</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2357</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">5279</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">246</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">21</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">148291</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1226</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">5033</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">171</span> <span class="p">|</span>
<span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">2020</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">04</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">20</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">147065</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">1881</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">4862</span> <span class="p">|</span> <span class="mi">276</span> <span class="p">|</span>
</code></pre></div>
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