change KotzWenz damage implementation to allow using high/low/median/…

…mean damages from the distribution, using an R script

config/default.cfg

@@ -136,6 +136,7 @@ cfg$files2export$start <- c("config/conopt3.opt",
                             "scripts/input/exoGAINSAirpollutants.R",
                             "scripts/input/climate_assessment_run.R",
                             "scripts/input/climate_assessment_temperatureImpulseResponse.R",
+                            "scripts/input/run_KotzWenz_damages.R",
                             ".Rprofile",
                             "config/mappingEDGEtoREMINDsectors.csv",
                             "modules/11_aerosols/exoGAINS/input/ef_gains.cs4r",

main.gms

@@ -401,6 +401,7 @@ $setglobal regipol  none              !! def = none
 *' * (off): no damages on GDP
 *' * (DiceLike): DICE-like damages (linear-quadratic damages on GDP). Choose specification via cm_damage_DiceLike_specification
 *' * (BurkeLike): Burke-like damages (growth rate damages on GDP). Choose specification via cm_damage_BurkeLike_specification and cm_damage_BurkeLike_persistenceTime
+*' * (KotzWenz): damage function based on Kotz et al. (2024)
 *' * (KWLike): Damage function based on Kalkuhl & Wenz (2020)
 *' * (KW_SE): Damage function based on Kalkuhl & Wenz (2020), but for the upper bound of the damages based on their standard error calculation
 *' * (KWTCint): Combines aggregate damages from Kalkuhl & Wenz (2020) and tropical cyclone damages from Krichene et al. (2022)
@@ -412,6 +413,7 @@ $setGlobal damages  off               !! def = off
 *' * (off):
 *' * (DiceLikeItr): Internalize DICE-like damages (calculate the SCC) adjust cm_damages_SccHorizon. Requires cm_emiscen set to 9 for now.
 *' * (BurkeLikeItr): Internalize Burke-like damages (calculate the SCC) adjust cm_damages_SccHorizo. Requires cm_emiscen set to 9 for now.
+*' * (KotzWenzItr): Internalize KotzWenz damages (calculate the SCC). Requires cm_emiscen set to 9. 
 *' * (KWlikeItr): Internalize damage function based on Kalkuhl & Wenz (2020). Requires cm_emiscen set to 9 for now.
 *' * (KWlikeItrCPnash): Internalize damage function based on Kalkuhl & Wenz (2020), but with Nash SCC, i.e. each region only internalizes its own damages. Requires cm_emiscen set to 9 for now.
 *' * (KWlikeItrCPreg): Internalize damage function based on Kalkuhl & Wenz (2020), but with regional SCC instead of a global uniform price. Requires cm_emiscen set to 9 for now.
@@ -1665,6 +1667,8 @@ $setGlobal cm_magicc_temperatureImpulseResponse  off           !! def = off  !!
 $setGlobal cm_magicc_config  OLDDEFAULT    !! def = OLDDEFAULT ; {OLDDEFAULT, RCP26_[5,15,..,95], TCRE_[LOWEST,LOW,MEDIUM,HIGH,HIGHEST] }
 *'  climate damages (HowardNonCatastrophic, DICE2013R, DICE2016, HowardNonCatastrophic, HowardInclCatastrophic, KWcross, KWpanelPop}
 $setGlobal cm_damage_DiceLike_specification  HowardNonCatastrophic   !! def = HowardNonCatastrophic
+***cfg$gms$cm_KotzWenzPerc <- mean #def = mean; {low,med,mean,high} the percentile of the damage distribution from Kotz et al. (2024), low = 5th, high = 95th percentile
+$setGlobal cm_KotzWenzPerc mean !! def = mean
 *** cfg$gms$cm_damage_Labor_exposure <- "low" # def = "low"; {low,high}
 $setGlobal cm_damage_Labor_exposure  low    !! def = low  !! regexp = low|high
 *** cfg$gms$cm_TCssp <- "SSP2"  #def = "SSP2"; {SSP2,SSP5} the scenario for which the damage function is specified - currently only SSP2 and SSP5 are available

modules/50_damages/BurkeLike/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_globalMeanTemperatureZeroed1900,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalT,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalTm1,input,questionnaire

modules/50_damages/DiceLike/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_regionalTemperature,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageGrowthRate,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_specification,input,questionnaire

modules/50_damages/KWLike/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_globalMeanTemperatureZeroed1900,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_specification,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire

modules/50_damages/KWTCint/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_specification,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginal,input,questionnaire

modules/50_damages/KW_SE/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_GDPGross,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalTC,input,questionnaire
 pm_GDPGrossIso,input,questionnaire

modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/datainput.gms

@@ -1,35 +1,5 @@
-parameter f50_beta1(nboot,iso)	"damage function parameter for temperature"
-/
-$ondelim
-$include "./modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/input/beta1_for_REMIND.csv"
-$offdelim
-/
-;
 
-parameter f50_beta2(nboot,iso)	"damage function parameter for temperature^2"
-/
-$ondelim
-$include "./modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/input/beta2_for_REMIND.csv"
-$offdelim
-/
-;
-parameter f50_maxtemp(nboot)	"maximum temperature for which damage function is valid"
-/
-$ondelim
-$include "./modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/input/maxtemp_for_REMIND.csv"
-$offdelim
-/
-;
-
-*read in national population and gdp for weighted regional aggregation
-*table f50_countryPop(tall,iso,all_POPscen)	
-*$ondelim
-*$include "./modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/input/f50_pop.cs3r"
-*$offdelim
-*;
-*p50_isoPop(tall,iso)=f50_countryPop(tall,iso,"%cm_POPscen%");
-
-table f50_countryGDP(tall,iso,all_GDPscen)	"country level GDP"
+table f50_countryGDP(tall,iso,all_GDPscen)	"country level GDP from SSPs"
 $ondelim
 $include "./modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/input/f50_gdp.cs3r"
 $offdelim
@@ -39,9 +9,6 @@ $offdelim
 *interpolate to annual time steps
 *loop(ttot$(ttot.val ge 2005),
 *	loop(tall$(pm_tall_2_ttot(tall,ttot)),
-*		p50_isoPop(tall,iso) = 
-*			(1-pm_interpolWeight_ttot_tall(tall))*p50_isoPop(ttot,iso)
-*			+ pm_interpolWeight_ttot_tall(tall)*p50_isoPop(ttot+1,iso);
 *		p50_isoGDP(tall,iso) = 
 *			(1-pm_interpolWeight_ttot_tall(tall))*p50_isoGDP(ttot,iso)
 *			+ pm_interpolWeight_ttot_tall(tall)*p50_isoGDP(ttot+1,iso);
@@ -50,7 +17,9 @@ $offdelim
 
 *keep constant after 2150 as it is needed until 2300 for SCC calculation
 *p50_isoGDP(tall,iso)$(tall.val ge 2150) = p50_isoGDP("2150",iso);
-*p50_isoPop(tall,iso)$(tall.val ge 2150) = p50_isoPop("2150",iso);
+
+* initialize
+pm_damage(tall,regi) = 1;
 
 *calculate and interpolate country GDP fraction of regional GDP for SSP2EU scenario, country GDP is in PPP, regional GDP in trl MER!
 pm_GDPfrac(tall,iso)=f50_countryGDP(tall,iso,"%cm_GDPscen%")/1000000/(sum(regi2iso(regi,iso),pm_gdp(tall,regi)/pm_shPPPMER(regi))+1e-9);
@@ -65,5 +34,3 @@ display pm_GDPfrac;
 
 pm_GDPfrac(tall,iso)$(tall.val ge 2150) = pm_GDPfrac("2150",iso);
 
-* initialize
-pm_damage(tall,regi) = 1;

modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/declarations.gms

@@ -1,15 +1,9 @@
 Parameters
-pm_GDPfrac(tall,iso)   "country fraction of regional GDP"
-p50_globalMeanTemp2020(nboot,tall)      "global mean temperature difference to 2020"
-p50_damageIso(tall,iso,nboot)	"country level damage factor"
-p50_damageIsoPerc(tall,iso)	"damage percentile - currently mean"
+pm_GDPfrac(tall,iso)	"GDP fraction of a country in its region"
+p50_damageIsoPerc(tall,iso,percentile)	"damage factor for country and bootstrapping"
 pm_damage(tall,all_regi)	"regional damage factor"
-p50_damageMarginalIso(tall,iso,nboot)	"country level damage marginal"
-p50_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall,iso)	"country level marginal percentile - currently mean"
-pm_damageMarginal(tall,all_regi)	"regional damage marginal"
-p50_r(nboot)	"needed for percentile computation"
-p50_pct(*) /median 50.0, 95 95.0/	"possible percentiles for damages"
-p50_rank(nboot)	  "needed for percentile computation"
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall,iso,percentile)	"marginal damage for country and bootstrapping"
+pm_damageMarginal(tall,all_regi)	"regional marginal damage"
 ;
 
 positive variable

modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/not_used.txt

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ name,type,reason
 pm_damageMarginalT,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalTm1,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalTm2,input,questionnaire
+pm_globalMeanTemperatureZeroed1900,input,questionnaire
 pm_temperatureImpulseResponseCO2,input,questionnaire
 pm_GDPGross,input,questionnaire
 cm_damage_KWSE,input,questionnaire

modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/postsolve.gms

@@ -1,60 +1,16 @@
-p50_globalMeanTemp2020(nboot,tall)$(tall.val ge 2020 and tall.val le 2300) = 
-	pm_globalMeanTemperatureZeroed1900(tall)-pm_globalMeanTemperatureZeroed1900("2020")
-;
-
-*set temperature to max temp for each realization if it is higher
-loop(tall,
-  loop(nboot,
-	if((p50_globalMeanTemp2020(nboot,tall) gt f50_maxtemp(nboot)),
-	p50_globalMeanTemp2020(nboot,tall) = f50_maxtemp(nboot)
-);
-);
-);
-
-*calculate damage factor for each country and realization
-p50_damageIso(tall,iso,nboot)$(tall.val gt 2020 and tall.val le 2300) = 
-	f50_beta1(nboot,iso)/100*p50_globalMeanTemp2020(nboot,tall)+f50_beta2(nboot,iso)/100*p50_globalMeanTemp2020(nboot,tall)*p50_globalMeanTemp2020(nboot,tall);
-
-*desired percentile of damages
-*hardcode mean for now, think about percentiles later
-p50_damageIsoPerc(tall,iso)$(tall.val gt 2020 and tall.val le 2300) = 
-	sum(nboot,p50_damageIso(tall,iso,nboot))/1000
-;
-
-*marginal
-p50_damageMarginalIso(tall,iso,nboot)$(tall.val gt 2020 and tall.val le 2300) =
-	f50_beta1(nboot,iso)/100+2*f50_beta2(nboot,iso)/100*p50_globalMeanTemp2020(nboot,tall)
-;
-
-p50_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall,iso)$(tall.val gt 2020 and tall.val le 2300) = 
-	sum(nboot,p50_damageMarginalIso(tall,iso,nboot))/1000
-;
-
-*loop(tall $ (tall.val ge 2020 and tall.val le 2300),
-*	loop(iso,
-*		p50_rank(nboot)=p50_damageIso(tall,iso,nboot);
-*$libInclude rank p50_rank nboot p50_r p50_pct
-*		p50_damageIsoPerc(tall,iso)=p50_pct("median");
-**		p50_damageIsoPerc(tall,iso)=p50_pct("%cm_DamPerc%")
-
-*		p50_rank(nboot)=p50_damageMarginalIso(tall,iso,nboot);
-*$libInclude rank p50_rank nboot p50_r p50_pct
-*		p50_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall,iso)=p50_pct("median");
-**		p50_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall,iso)=p50_pct("%cm_DamPerc%")
-*display p50_pct;
-*	);
-*);
 
+execute "Rscript run_KotzWenz_damages.R"
+execute_loadpoint 'pm_KotzWenz_damageIso' p50_damageIsoPerc=pm_damageIso;
+execute_loadpoint 'pm_KotzWenz_damageMarginalIso' pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc=pm_damageMarginalIso;
 
 pm_damageMarginal(tall,regi)$(tall.val gt 2020 and tall.val le 2300) = 
-*	sum(regi2iso(regi,iso),p50_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall,iso)*p50_isoGDP(tall,iso))/sum(regi2iso(regi,iso),p50_isoGDP(tall,iso))
-	sum(regi2iso(regi,iso),p50_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall,iso)*pm_GDPfrac(tall,iso))
+	sum(regi2iso(regi,iso),pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall,iso,"%cm_KotzWenzPerc%")*pm_GDPfrac(tall,iso))
 ;
 
 *regional damage using SSP country level GDP as weight
 pm_damage(tall,regi)$(tall.val gt 2020 and tall.val le 2300) = 
-	1-sum(regi2iso(regi,iso),p50_damageIsoPerc(tall,iso)*pm_GDPfrac(tall,iso))
+	1-sum(regi2iso(regi,iso),p50_damageIsoPerc(tall,iso,"%cm_KotzWenzPerc%")*pm_GDPfrac(tall,iso))
 ;
 
-display p50_damageIsoPerc,pm_damage,pm_damageMarginal;
+display pm_damage,pm_damageMarginal;
 

modules/50_damages/KotzWenz/sets.gms

@@ -3,4 +3,9 @@ nboot		"boot strapping realisations of damage function parameters"
 	/
 	1*1000
 	/
+percentile	"possible percentiles of damage function as coded in the R script"
+	/
+	low,mean,med,high
+	/
+
 ;

modules/50_damages/Labor/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_globalMeanTemperatureZeroed1900,input,questionnaire
 pm_temperatureImpulseResponseCO2,input,questionnaire
 pm_GDPGross,input,questionnaire

modules/50_damages/TC/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_temperatureImpulseResponseCO2,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_specification,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire

modules/50_damages/off/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_globalMeanTemperatureZeroed1900,input,questionnaire
 pm_regionalTemperature,input,questionnaire
 pm_damage,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/BurkeLikeItr/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalT,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalTm1,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalTm2,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/DiceLikeItr/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_tempScaleGlob2Reg,input,questionnaire
 pm_damage,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageGrowthRate,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KWTCintItr/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginal,input,questionnaire
 pm_cesdata,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KW_SEitr/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginal,input,questionnaire
 pm_cesdata,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KWlikeItr/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_cesdata,input,questionnaire
 pm_lab,input,questionnaire
 pm_interpolWeight_ttot_tall,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KWlikeItrCPnash/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_cesdata,input,questionnaire
 pm_lab,input,questionnaire
 pm_interpolWeight_ttot_tall,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KWlikeItrCPreg/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginal,input,questionnaire
 pm_cesdata,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KotzWenzCPreg/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginal,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalT,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire
 pm_tempScaleGlob2Reg,input,questionnaire
@@ -19,7 +20,6 @@ pm_tall_2_ttot,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageProd,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageTC,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageGrowthRateTC,input,questionnaire
-pm_GDPfrac,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalTC,input,questionnaire
 pm_GDPGrossIso,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageImp,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KotzWenzCPreg/postsolve.gms

@@ -19,7 +19,8 @@ p51_scc(tall,regi)$((tall.val ge 2020) and (tall.val le 2150)) = 1000 *
 	* pm_consPC(tall,regi)/pm_consPC(tall2,regi2) 
 	* pm_GDPGross(tall2,regi2)
 	* pm_temperatureImpulseResponseCO2(tall2,tall)
-	* pm_damageMarginal(tall2,regi2)
+*	* pm_damageMarginal(tall2,regi2)
+	* sum(regi2iso(regi2,iso),pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall2,iso,"%cm_KotzWenzPerc%")*pm_GDPfrac(tall2,iso))
    ))
 ;
 

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KotzWenzItr/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginal,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire
 pm_tempScaleGlob2Reg,input,questionnaire
 pm_damage,input,questionnaire
@@ -19,7 +20,6 @@ pm_tall_2_ttot,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageProd,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageTC,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageGrowthRateTC,input,questionnaire
-pm_GDPfrac,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalTC,input,questionnaire
 pm_GDPGrossIso,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageImp,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/KotzWenzItr/postsolve.gms

@@ -19,7 +19,8 @@ p51_scc(tall)$((tall.val ge 2020) and (tall.val le 2150)) = 1000 *
 	* pm_consPC(tall,regi2)/pm_consPC(tall2,regi2) 
 	* pm_GDPGross(tall2,regi2)
 	* pm_temperatureImpulseResponseCO2(tall2,tall)
-	* pm_damageMarginal(tall2,regi2)
+*	* pm_damageMarginal(tall2,regi2)
+	* sum(regi2iso(regi2,iso),pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc(tall2,iso,"%cm_KotzWenzPerc%")*pm_GDPfrac(tall2,iso))
     )
    )
 ;

modules/51_internalizeDamages/LabItr/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 cm_damages_BurkeLike_persistenceTime,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageGrowthRate,input,questionnaire
 pm_damageMarginalT,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/TCitr/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_cesdata,input,questionnaire
 pm_lab,input,questionnaire
 pm_GDPGross,input,questionnaire

modules/51_internalizeDamages/off/not_used.txt

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 # |  REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 # |  Contact: [email protected]
 name,type,reason
+pm_damageMarginalIsoPerc,input,questionnaire
 pm_temperatureImpulseResponseCO2,input,questionnaire
 pm_tempScaleGlob2Reg,input,questionnaire
 pm_damage,input,questionnaire